Baltimore 17 – New England 34

NY Giants 24 – San Fran 31

For my workouts I have increased my running. Last week I was able to put in a full 21 miles. Two runs of 6 miles, one of 7, and one of 2. My times also decreased with each run of 6 miles. Only 57 minutes now, but I want to get that time down to an even 54 for an average of 9 minute miles. I’m pretty sure I can do it. A run of 6 miles burns about 1100 calories for me, so I am really motivated to keep going. I have also been throwing in more abs, and I can tell that crunches get easier as I lose weight.

This week I hope to run at least 22 miles, and lose another 5 pounds.

10. She became a great person even though she came from a background that definitely didn’t promote it.

9. She makes the most amazing Lasagna in the world.

8. She is an amazing writer, and has even published her own Kindle Book. Coming Out: Poetry & Short Stories

7. She is the smartest woman I know.

6. She is absolutely beautiful.

5. She married me even though I was a total jerk and didn’t deserve her.

4. She stayed married to me for 11 years (in one month), even after I treated her bad and did awful things to her.

3. She gave birth to the 4 most amazing kids in the world.

2. She is the best mother those 4 kids could ask for.

1. Her desire to love and honor God.

It was awesome to see this video during an NFL Playoff game. Focus on the Family did an awesome job.

This week will be a lot tougher for me to pick the winners. The home teams are favored in three of the four games, and the fourth is a hard one to pick.

Game 1 – San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints

This game features the top Offense in the NFL against a top Defense. Usually, they say Defense wins championships, however it will be interesting to see if that is the case today. The odds makers have the Saints by 3.5. After looking at the records and numbers of these two teams, I show that based on pure statistics the Saints Offense is better than the 49ers Defense. Based purely on numbers I have the Saints winning by 6.5 points. However, the Saints are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. They lost all three games on the road this year. However weather was not a factor, neither was playing in a dome. They lost to Tampa Bay, St. Louis in the Dome, and Green Bay in the first week of the season. It is not a cold day in San Fransisco today, and the wind doesn’t appear to be blowing strong. So, the elements shouldn’t hurt them, nor the fact they are playing on grass. However, it appears that the Saints really do play better in front of their home crowd. They outscore their opponents by an average of 22 points per game at home. Unfortunately for them, they only outscore their opponents by an average of 2.75 on the road. Meanwhile, San Fransisco’s Defense which allows 14.3 ppg on the season, only allows 10.8 ppg at home. San Fran Offense also scores an average of 4 ppg more when playing at home.

Last year, New Orleans had to play against Seattle in round 2 of the playoffs. They lost. Even though they have won 9 straight games, and this is the best offense in football right now, I don’t think this will be their day.

My pick:

San Fransisco 27 – New Orleans 24

Game 2 Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

I hope I am wrong about this one, but I cannot pick Denver to win this. New England offense is too tough. I believe they are the best passing team in the NFL. They have no running game, but Tom Brady is in a system that can score at will against anybody. This game is also at New England. If the Bronco’s and Tebow are to win, they must do what they did in the first quarter of game 1. Run the ball down New England’s throat. New England has a very weak run defense, and it can be done. They also cannot turn the ball over. They must keep Tom Brady on the sidelines. After Tebow’s amazing game last week, the Patriots will not allow him to hit wide open receivers who are receiving man to man coverage. They will sit back and play zone, and make Tebow find open men. Tebow will have to go from receiver to receiver to receiver before finding a guy who is open, and then he will have to deliver the ball with the pocket collapsing around him, because Denver O. Line will not be able to protect him forever.

This defensive scheme will allow McGahee, Ball, and Tebow to have a lot of success running the ball. However, unless each of their drives ends up in the end zone, they will get in trouble. Denver Defense should be able to stop Brady on 50% of the drives in the first half. However, as the game goes along, Brady and the Patriots get tougher.

My pick:

New England 35 – Denver 17 (I hope I’m wrong.)

Game 3 – Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans

This game is a very difficult pick. Both teams have similarly tough defenses. Both teams rely heavily on their running games. Houston has a rookie Quarterback who has played good in some games. Baltimore has Joe Flacco who has played very well at times, but has also struggled. I predict Ray Rice will have more trouble running the ball against Houston than Foster and Tate do against Baltimore. Houston WR Andre Johnson will require the attention of Baltimore DBs and Owen Daniels will draw LB coverage allowing for more running room on the outside and past the D-Line.

My pick:

Houston 23 – Baltimore 17

Game 4 – Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants

Green Bay won the first matchup in NY with a last minute drive by Aaron Rodgers. The Giants have been playing amazing football lately with Eli Manning throwing 15 TDs in December. The Giant Defense has really stepped up their game over the last month, and the running game has finally started to have success. Green Bay Defense is very vulnerable to the pass and run. As the weather gets colder offenses tend to slow down. I believe this game is going to be much more favorable to the Giants than it will be to the Packers. However, the Packers are still playing at home and it is hard to stop Rodgers at home.

My Pick:

Green Bay 31 – New York 30