Round 2 NFL Playoffs

Last week, I picked all 4 winners in the wild card round. All of the winners happened to be home teams, but that wasn’t my reason for picking them. Two of the home teams were the underdogs. The Houston Texans were not expected to defeat the Cincinnati Bengals, and the Denver Broncos were definitely not supposed to defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, they both won their games.

This week will be a lot tougher for me to pick the winners. The home teams are favored in three of the four games, and the fourth is a hard one to pick.

Game 1 – San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints

This game features the top Offense in the NFL against a top Defense. Usually, they say Defense wins championships, however it will be interesting to see if that is the case today. The odds makers have the Saints by 3.5. After looking at the records and numbers of these two teams, I show that based on pure statistics the Saints Offense is better than the 49ers Defense. Based purely on numbers I have the Saints winning by 6.5 points. However, the Saints are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. They lost all three games on the road this year. However weather was not a factor, neither was playing in a dome. They lost to Tampa Bay, St. Louis in the Dome, and Green Bay in the first week of the season. It is not a cold day in San Fransisco today, and the wind doesn’t appear to be blowing strong. So, the elements shouldn’t hurt them, nor the fact they are playing on grass. However, it appears that the Saints really do play better in front of their home crowd. They outscore their opponents by an average of 22 points per game at home. Unfortunately for them, they only outscore their opponents by an average of 2.75 on the road. Meanwhile, San Fransisco’s Defense which allows 14.3 ppg on the season, only allows 10.8 ppg at home. San Fran Offense also scores an average of 4 ppg more when playing at home.

Last year, New Orleans had to play against Seattle in round 2 of the playoffs. They lost. Even though they have won 9 straight games, and this is the best offense in football right now, I don’t think this will be their day.

My pick:

San Fransisco 27 – New Orleans 24

Game 2 Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

I hope I am wrong about this one, but I cannot pick Denver to win this. New England offense is too tough. I believe they are the best passing team in the NFL. They have no running game, but Tom Brady is in a system that can score at will against anybody. This game is also at New England. If the Bronco’s and Tebow are to win, they must do what they did in the first quarter of game 1. Run the ball down New England’s throat. New England has a very weak run defense, and it can be done. They also cannot turn the ball over. They must keep Tom Brady on the sidelines. After Tebow’s amazing game last week, the Patriots will not allow him to hit wide open receivers who are receiving man to man coverage. They will sit back and play zone, and make Tebow find open men. Tebow will have to go from receiver to receiver to receiver before finding a guy who is open, and then he will have to deliver the ball with the pocket collapsing around him, because Denver O. Line will not be able to protect him forever.

This defensive scheme will allow McGahee, Ball, and Tebow to have a lot of success running the ball. However, unless each of their drives ends up in the end zone, they will get in trouble. Denver Defense should be able to stop Brady on 50% of the drives in the first half. However, as the game goes along, Brady and the Patriots get tougher.

My pick:

New England 35 – Denver 17 (I hope I’m wrong.)

Game 3 – Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans

This game is a very difficult pick. Both teams have similarly tough defenses. Both teams rely heavily on their running games. Houston has a rookie Quarterback who has played good in some games. Baltimore has Joe Flacco who has played very well at times, but has also struggled. I predict Ray Rice will have more trouble running the ball against Houston than Foster and Tate do against Baltimore. Houston WR Andre Johnson will require the attention of Baltimore DBs and Owen Daniels will draw LB coverage allowing for more running room on the outside and past the D-Line.

My pick:

Houston 23 – Baltimore 17

Game 4 – Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants

Green Bay won the first matchup in NY with a last minute drive by Aaron Rodgers. The Giants have been playing amazing football lately with Eli Manning throwing 15 TDs in December. The Giant Defense has really stepped up their game over the last month, and the running game has finally started to have success. Green Bay Defense is very vulnerable to the pass and run. As the weather gets colder offenses tend to slow down. I believe this game is going to be much more favorable to the Giants than it will be to the Packers. However, the Packers are still playing at home and it is hard to stop Rodgers at home.

My Pick:

Green Bay 31 – New York 30

My Wildcard Playoff Predictions

It is wildcard weekend, and in order to make the games a little bit more fun to watch, since the fantasy season is over, I am going to make my game predictions. I really haven’t decided who will go to the Super Bowl yet, but I am beginning to sense that the Packers may get upset by one of these other teams. The Saints offense has definitely been the hottest in football, and it would probably not be wise to bet against them, but I’m not so sure I am feeling the Saints either. So, I will not make an NFC prediction before the playoffs actually begin.

As for the AFC, I would have to pick the Patriots. I am not a Patriot fan, and I would rather see any team in the AFC in the Super Bowl than Tom Brady and the Pats. However, that offense has been pretty much unstoppable, and unless someone can slow them down by controlling the ball on the ground and keeping Brady off the field, they will not be beat. The Ravens are probably the only AFC team that can do that.

Game 1 – Cincinnati at Houston

Cincinnati is a very young team. They start a rookie QB (Andy Dalton) and their biggest offensive threat is a rookie WR (A. J. Green). They started the season pretty solid with some big wins, but lately they have played a little weak, and they didn’t lock in a wildcard spot until week 17, thanks to losses by Denver and Oakland.

They face they Houston Texans who are also depending on a rookie QB (T.J. Yates) who did not play last weekend due to injury, and was replaced by veteran Jake Delhomme. That game didn’t mean much to them in advancing their playoff position, and several stars rested as they lost to the Tennessee Titans who were fighting for a wildcard spot. This week they will be at full strength with RB Arian Foster and WR Andre Johnson participating.

This game should easily go to the Houston Texans. RB Arian Foster and his backup Ben Tate combined for the second best running game in the NFL at 153 yards per game. The Bengals Defense was 10th in the NFL in Rushing D giving up 104.7 yards per game, as well as 14 TDs. Last week against the Ravens they gave up TD runs of 70 and and 51 yards to Ray Rice. Rice had 191 yards total in that game.  Foster and Tate should have similar success against the Cincinnati Defense. Expect 2 rushing TDs.

Cincinnati rushed for an average of 110 yards per game during the season with veteran RB Cedric Benson leading the way. The group was able to combine for more than 100 yards and 1 TD on the ground last week against the Ravens D who only gave up 92 yards per game on the ground. The Houston Texans are not much easier to run on as they only gave up 96 yards per game on the ground and even fewer TDs. Don’t expect Cincinnati to have a lot of success. They will probably get behind in the first half and go to the passing game in the second.

Both Defenses are good against the pass, but the Texans are 3rd in the league in Passing YPG and have only allowed 18 TDs to 17 INTs. Expect Dalton to have about 200 yards with a TD to A.J. Green. The Cincinnati D gives up just over 200 YPG in the air, and will have problems stopping the run. This will allow a big play or two to WR Andre Johnson and company. Expect Yates to throw for 2oo and a couple TDs.

Final Score: Houston 28 – Cincinnati 17

Game 2 – Detroit and New Orleans

Two of the hottest offenses in football. Brees set passing records this season, and his team seems to score at will over the last 8 weeks. Last week, in a loss, Matthew Stafford threw for 520 yards and five TDs. Neither of these team’s Defenses have been really good lately so this should be an exciting game. Hopefully, it will be like watching Madden NFL on the Playstation 3.

New Orleans is the number one ranked offense in the NFL averaging 467 yards per game. Detroit is number five averaging 396 yards per game. Brees spreads the ball all over the field, and they rely on many weapons including all purpose yardage leader Darren Sproles. Stafford also shares the ball with several receivers, but his main target is WR Calvin Johnson who can’t be stopped by any one man, and often attracts triple coverage.

Defensive rankings do not mean much in this game, as the New Orleans Saints don’t have a lot of teams running on them because their opponents are often left playing catch up. However, the best chance the Lions have is to establish a running game, and control the ball a bit. The more opportunities you give Drew Brees to throw the further behind you get. Kevin Smith has been running well, and should be able to gain around 80 yards and a TD against the Saints. On the other side, if New Orleans chooses to run the ball in the second half, expect Ivory and Sproles to pick up big yards on a few carries, as Detroit will be looking to stop Brees.

This one will be fun. I expect Brees to throw for 350 yards, and 4 TDs, and Sproles will score on a return or a second half run. Matthew Stafford will have a big game. New Orleans will do everything they can to stop Calvin Johnson, but he will still have 150 yards receiving and 1 TD. Stafford will finish with over 400 yards passing.

Final Score: New Orleans 41 – Detroit 35

Game 3: Atlanta at New York

This game is very difficult for me to predict. The Giants are unpredictable. Eli Manning may come out and throw 3 picks in the first half or he could be great. The Giants had to fight for their life to get to the post season, but now that they are here, they know how to turn up the intensity.

The Giants are 5th in the league in passing yardage at 295 YPG. Eli should have good success throwing against the Atlanta D ranked 20th against the pass giving up 236 YPG and 26 TDs. Manning has thrown 16 INTs as well, so he must take care of the ball, but he should have some success. On the running side of the ball the Giants are last in the league with 89 YPG, and don’t expect them to have a huge game on the ground against Atlanta. However, if they get down around the goal line, Bradshaw and Jacobs know how to get into the end zone.

Matt Ryan has had his best year passing for over 4,000 yards and 29 TDs. He has weapons all around him in WR Roddy White, Rookie WR Julio Jones, and RB Michael Turner. Ryan is facing 29th ranked Defense against the pass. He should have good success. Turner should also have a good game while the Giants try and figure out how to stop Ryan. Turner rushed for over 1,400 yards this season and scored 11 TDs on the ground. The Giants Defense gives up 121 YPG on the ground.

If Eli gets hot, and gets a few big plays from Cruz the Giants may be able to pull this one off. For some reason they seem to find a way to play better when the season is on the line. Atlanta hasn’t won a playoff game since 2004, but they have played really good lately. This one is hard to call.
Final Score: Atlanta 27 – New York 28

Game 4: Denver at Pittsburgh

Denver has lost 3 straight games. Tebow has been awful. Pittsburgh has the leagues best Defense. This game should be easy to call. However, for a few reasons, the Broncos may be able to surprise a few people this Sunday.

Reason 1 – Rashard Mendenhall is out. This leaves the Steelers Running game to Isaac Redmon and John Clay. Denver’s Defense isn’t spectacular against the run, as they give up 126 YPG. However, they have only gave up 11 TDs on the ground this season. Redmon did rush for a TD last week, but also had two fumbles. If the Broncos can keep these backup RBs out of the end zone and force a few of those fumbles they will keep this game close.

Reason 2 – Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben is limping on that sprained right ankle. He is not going to be very mobile, and he was sacked 40 times this year. The Denver Defense has 41 sacks this season, 10th most in the NFL. They will be coming after Big Ben. The Pittsburgh starting center is out with an ankle sprain, so Roethlisberger will be in even more trouble. Since hurting his ankle he has not been very effective. We will have to see how much he has healed since last week at Cleveland, where the Steelers only beat the Browns by a score of 13-9. Ben was 23 of 40 in that game for 221 yards, 0 TDs, and was sacked twice.

Reason 3 – The Steelers have struggled against weaker teams this season. Against Cleveland they won 14 -3 and 13-9. Against Indianapolis they won 23-20. Against Jacksonville they won 17-13. Against Kansas City they won 13 -9. This is five games against non playoff teams where they won by 4 points or less. Denver is a fourth quarter team, and Prater may be the best kicker in the league. This could be one of those very close games, where Prater gets a chance at the end.

Reason 4 – Denver is the top rushing team in the NFL. Denver may not have the best RB in the NFL but because they can’t depend on Tebow to throw the ball accurately for a whole game, they are very creative in the running game. Willis McGahee will be healthy and has showed that he can still have big games. Teams that rely on the run have also had good success against the Steelers who rank #1 in Pass Defense but #8 against the run. San Fransisco was able to break just over 100 yards against them. St. Louis rushed for 165 yards against them. Cincinnati 103 yards in week 13 and 109 in week 10. Jacksonville for 133. And Arian Foster scorched them for 155 yards in week 4.

Pittsburgh can be run on, and they also allow QBs to pick up large chunks of yardage at times. So, with Denver’s run first, pass as a last resort offense, I think they will have some success moving the ball. Tebow will have to make at least a few plays through the air, but that can’t be asking too much. Can it?

Of course, Pittsburgh is a playoff team. They are experienced, and they play hard this time of year, so it is hard to expect a Denver miracle. But just for fun, I am going to call it.

Denver 16 – Pittsburgh 14

No more Fantasy Football.

My season is over. Last night as I sat at Travis’ house watching Monday Night Football, I realized that I would not be returning to the Super Bowl. In 4 seasons of my fantasy keeper league I have made the playoffs all four. Twice I have made the Super Bowl and expected to again this season, but it just wasn’t to be. I went into the night trailing by 39 points. My opponent the Orange Crush was finished. I however, had my secret weapon left to play, as well as a wide receiver. Ladanian Tomlinson and Chris Chambers both play for the Chargers. The Chargers were going up against the absolutely horrible Denver Broncos. This should be a field day for L.T. and the Chargers. I should get the forty points I need and be on my way to the Super Bowl. Unfortunately things didn’t work out that way.

You see, the Broncos sucked so bad that they never made a game of it. LT had 107 yards rushing and a TD early in the third quarter. Chris Chambers also had a TD. I only needed 1 point to make the Super Bowl. Then the Chargers coach pulled both my players from the game. Since the Broncos sucked so badly, he decided 23 points was all that they needed. They didn’t get another first down the rest of the game. They didn’t need to. The Broncos even got down to the 1 yard line. An opportunity to stick it in and make a game out of it. This team sucked so bad that they couldn’t pick up one yard on 3 straight attempts. They turned the ball over, and never even got close to the end zone for the rest of the game. This Broncos have got to be the worst team in the NFL. Yes, even worse than the Dolphins. At least the Dolphins make a game of it. Usually.

So, this season is over. It could have been great, but it wasn’t. If McGahee didn’t break his ribs, and had scored me more than two points. If I had only started Nate Burleson, instead of Calvin Johnson. If Larry Johnson hadn’t missed half the season. It could have been so much better. But, it wasn’t. So now I must get over my horrible defeat, and look forward to next year. A whole 9 months til I get to draft new players, and try again. My favorite worthless activity. The only thing I do just for fun. Nine months.

So, Orange Crush and Red Devils, which ever one of you win. Enjoy it, because next year, Mass Destruction will be back. And there will be nothing left of the competition. I promise you that.

Fantasy Football

I love Fantasy Football. It has been my only “hobby” for the past few years. There are tons of things I love to do, but I just haven’t had time. But every year I play Fantasy Football.

For those of you that don’ t know what Fantasy Football is, well, it is just fun.  If you like football at least. The concept is to draft a team of players from the pool of actual NFL players. Then when the season starts, you compete against the other teams in your league. The points that the players on your team score are determined by the amount of points that they score in real life. For instance, if I have Peyton Manning on my team, and he throws 4 touchdowns in week 1 against the Titans, then I get 24 points for the 4 touchdowns he threw. Exciting huh?

Well, not to everybody. You have to love football.

Anyway, I am in a keeper league which I started 4 years ago.  In a keeper league you are allowed to sign contracts, and keep a certain amount of players just like a real team.  Well, in my keeper league I have now made the playoffs for the 4th straight year.  I have already won the Super Bowl once, and was runner up a second time.  So this year, I am attempting to win my second Super Bowl Championship in 3 years. I am attempting to build a Dynasty.  You gotta love it.

So, to all you losers in my league, be good and I might let you touch the trophy.

Hah! I love it.